- The Baltimore Orioles had the worst season for bettors we've ever tracked last year at -51.9 units on the moneyline.
- 2019 isn't supposed to be much better, as their World Series odds and win total are the worst in the MLB.
- The Orioles have made hardly any additions to their roster via trade or free agency, and their farm system is one of the worst in the league.
- They could eclipse their win total of 59.5 if two of their veterans can bounce back from terrible seasons - Chris Davis and Dylan Bundy.
The 2018 Baltimore Orioles were a disgrace to the game of baseball. Tommy Lasorda once said, “No matter how bad you are, you’re going to win a third of your games.” The Orioles did not apply.
In the baseball betting world, they were what one would refer to as an outlier. If someone risked a unit on the Orioles for every one of their games, they should seek mental help. They would have also lost 51.9 units — the worst single-season mark for a team in our database dating back to 2005 by a 17.2 unit margin.
The bar has been set low for the 2019 Birds, as they haven’t done very much to get better. Prepare for a long, painful rebuild, Baltimore fans.
2018 Results
- Record: 47-115 (-51.9 units), 68-94 ATS (-27.6 units)
- Over/Under Record: 73-83-6
- Preseason World Series Odds: +150000
- Win Total: 72.5 (under by 25.5, worst margin in MLB)
- Most Profitable Starter: Jimmy Yacabonis (4-3, +5.0 units)
Yeah, not a team you wanted to bet on last year. They couldn’t even reach 70 wins on the runline and trust me, they were getting the extra 1.5 runs the large majority of the time.
They were favorites just 31 times all season and six times from July 1st through the end of the season. How about that Jimmy Yacabonis, though? He threw bettors a bone in his seven starts…
2019 Odds
- World Series Odds: +200000
- Division Odds: +30000
- Win Total O/U: 59.5
- Playoff odds: Make +4000, Miss -20000
Get ready for another year of misery, Orioles fans. It’s fairly impossible to be as bad as they were last year, which is why their win total is more than a dozen games higher than the 47 wins they put up.
However, Baltimore has not really done anything to improve their roster this offseason and have little help coming their way in terms of high quality prospects.
Their 2019 odds in all four of these departments are all either the worst or tied for the worst in the league. Shocker.
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Roster Notes
- Additions: Nate Karns, Rio Ruiz, Hanser Alberto, Alcides Escobar (minors), Eric Young Jr. (minors), Carlos Perez (minors)
- Subtractions: Adam Jones, Tim Beckham, Colby Rasmus, Caleb Joseph, Breyvic Valera, Ryan Meisinger
- Potential Lineup
- Cedric Mullins – CF
- Jonathan Villar – 2B
- Trey Mancini – RF
- Mark Trumbo – DH
- Chris Davis – 1B
- Renato Nunez – 3B
- Joey Rickard – LF
- Chance Sisco/Austin Wynns – C
- Richie Martin/ Drew Jackson – SS
- Projected Rotation
- Dylan Bundy
- Alex Cobb
- Andrew Cashner
- Dylan Hess
- Yefry Ramirez
- Prospect Watch: Yusniel Diaz (No. 64, OF), Ryan Mountcastle (No. 71, 3B), Austin Hays (Unranked, OF), Keegan Akin (Unranked, LHP), Dean Kremer (Unranked, RHP)
- Key Injuries: Mark Trumbo (Knee, early 2019)
- MVP Candidates: Trey Mancini (+8000)
- Cy Young Candidates: Dylan Bundy (+10000), Alex Cobb (+10000)
Analysis
Player to Watch: Chris Davis
There are over 13,000 instances of players with at least 500 plate appearances in a season logged in Fangraphs dating back to 1873. Before last year, the worst batting average of the bunch was .179. Chris Davis decided to smash a record, re-setting the low, low bar at .168.
The highly-paid slugger was known for low averages and loads of strikeouts, but had previously made up for it by hitting home runs and walking. Last year, he hit just 16 homers (lowest full-season total of his career) with a 7.9% walk rate (lowest since 2012.)
Add all of his crappy feats up and you get a -3.1 fWAR. This ranks 15,143rd out of 15,147 qualified seasons in history. And you wonder why the Orioles won 47 games…
Baltimore won’t be playing for much in 2019 given their current roster, but I’m sure they would like Davis to get on the right track considering they’ll be paying him $23 million a year for the next four years.
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